Ulez will not help Sadiq Khan reach net zero by 2030, say experts

Sadiq Khan’s ultra-low emission zone (Ulez) will not help to reach his goal of achieving net zero by 2030, leading independent experts have warned.

They argued that the number of non-compliant cars is likely to fall only by a relatively “small number” and would likely have happened anyway because of new industry standards.

Using Ulez to achieve net zero would take “more than a century”, said one of the experts, who have produced a new report at Oxford Economics, the world’s foremost independent economic advisory firm.

On Tuesday, the Mayor of London introduced the controversial scheme, with motorists in Greater London paying £12.50 a day if their vehicles do not meet strict emissions standards.

It is part of his plans to improve the health of those living in the capital and achieve his 2030 net zero target.

Speaking to The Telegraph, Richard Holt, the director of global cities research at Oxford Economics, said of the future fall in the number of non-compliant cars in London: “I think it would have happened anyway. 

“It’s going to cut the number of high polluting vehicles by about 120,000 or less, out of three million vehicles in London, so it’s a small part of the overall story.

“It will probably have some benefit, but it’s not a big story. The progress we have seen so far is really just because cars have become much, much more energy efficient and much cleaner than they used to be.

“I think the first four years of Ulez, CO2 emissions fell by about 3 per cent over those three years, so it would take more than a century to get to net zero this way, which puts the scheme in perspective.”

Ulez has proved deeply unpopular, with at least 450 of the 1,762 cameras in the newly expanded zone damaged or missing after vandals sought to disrupt the scheme’s launch.

Telegraph analysis showed that six of the 23 new boroughs now covered by the Ulez expansion have seen more than a third of their cameras targeted.

The new Oxford Economics report suggested that Mr Khan’s net zero goal is not achievable until 2050, and warned that removing the most polluting vehicles from London’s roads and boosting the uptake of electric vehicles “will depend on costs, capabilities and convenience”.

The authors warned that Londoners will struggle to move to electric cars quickly because of the cost of living crisis and the lack of charging points.

Mr Holt added: “Your car, once you’ve bought it, will cost you less to run. But if you have to shell out £30,000 and at the moment you can’t get a loan at a cheap rate, there is not a great deal you can do about it.”

The Mayor’s office forecast that London will need between 40,000 and 60,000 public charging points by 2030, but there are currently fewer than 13,000 across the capital.

To reach the target, London will need to install between 450 and 675 additional new chargers per month.

The Government also scrapped its electric car incentive scheme and economists warned that “range anxiety” was putting many drivers off switching to electric vehicles.

According to figures published by NimbleFins, a personal finance website, the average cost of a new electric car is about £50,000, more than double the cost associated with a new petrol or diesel car, and only £2,000 is being offered under the scrappage scheme to make the transition away to a less polluting vehicle.

The report said: “Electrification will depend on cost, capability and convenience. At the moment cost is a major issue. And although an electric vehicle’s running costs are typically lower than a petrol or diesel vehicle, the surge in electricity prices since 2021 has narrowed the gap.

“While most car trips in London are under seven miles in length, consumers could still be deterred by the fact that electric vehicles currently provide less flexibility than petrol vehicles for longer journeys.

“Ulez itself is much milder than it has been portrayed. TfL [Transport for London] estimates that the number of non-compliant cars in outer London will decline from 160,000 to 46,000 because of the 2023 expansion of the Ulez. In the London context, that is a small number. So from a climate change perspective, Ulez is not a game-changer.”

A spokesman for Mr Khan said: “The Mayor remains committed to making London net zero by 2030. The Ulez works and is London-wide. It is an important next step in tackling the triple challenges of toxic air pollution, traffic congestion and the climate emergency and it is just one of many policies the Mayor is championing to help reach that goal.

“But the Mayor has been clear that in order for us to achieve net zero by 2030, the Government needs to step up as he only has powers to address less than half of London’s emissions.

“He has urgently called on ministers to provide more funding and powers to City Hall to support our efforts to bolster our green economy and build a better, more prosperous London for everyone.”