Global fertility rates set to crash, triggering ‘staggering’ social change

Global fertility rates are set to fall dramatically over the next 80 years leading to “staggering social change,” according to a study published in The Lancet. 

By 2100, 97 per cent of the world’s countries will have a shrinking population, modelling has projected. 

To maintain its population size, a country requires a fertility rate of 2.1 children per woman. By 2050, researchers suggest that number will have dropped to 1.83, and to a further 1.59 by 2100. 

In 13 countries, including Bhutan, Bangladesh, Nepal, and Saudi Arabia, rates are predicted to fall below one child per female.  

In Britain, that number recently dropped to 1.49 – the lowest rate ever recorded – whilst demographers warn that high living costs, nursery fees, house prices and stagnating pay for young people mean rates will likely continue to fall.

Global economic development is the key driving force behind the decline, as improved education, better access to contraception, and a reduction in infant mortality – meaning more children will survive into adulthood – all contribute. 

“In many ways, tumbling fertility rates are a success story, reflecting not only better, easily available contraception but also many women choosing to delay or have fewer children, as well as more opportunities for education and employment,” said senior author Dr Vollset from the University of Washington. 

The global fertility rate has already halved over the past 70 years, from around five children per female in 1950 to 2.2 in 2021. 

The sharp drop in fertility will have “profound effects on populations, economics, geopolitics, food security, health, and the environment,” as countries grapple with an elderly population and heavily reduced workforce, according to the study. 

Only 26 countries – including Angola, Uganda, Chad, and Somalia – are set experience population growth in 2100. 

Whilst fertility rates are dropping across the board,  the rate of decline in low and middle-income countries, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa, is projected to be much slower than the rest of the world. 

In Niger, for example, the total fertility rate is predicted to be five children for each female in 2050, only a slight drop from the current rate of seven. 

As a result, the majority of children born over the next century – 77 per cent – will be in the most resource-limited regions of the world, with over half, around 40 million, born in sub-Saharan Africa.

“As most of the world contends with the serious challenges to the economic growth of a shrinking workforce and how to care for and pay for ageing populations, many of the most resource-limited countries in sub-Saharan Africa will be grappling with how to support the youngest, fastest-growing population on the planet in some of the most politically and economically unstable, heat-stressed, and health system-strained places on earth,” said Dr Vollset. 

To mitigate the negative effects on countries’ with the highest rate of decline – including strained health systems, a smaller workforce, and the high-cost of an elederly population – experts suggest a “reliance on open immigration will become necessary to sustain economic growth.” 

“Sub-Saharan African countries have a vital resource that ageing societies are losing – a youthful population” said co-lead author Dr Natalia V Bhattacharjee.

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