UK General Election Poll Tracker

The opinion polls have made grim reading for the Tories for more than 12 months, as they continue to predict a catastrophic General Election night for the Conservatives.

The party has seen woeful results since Ms Truss left Downing Street, amid frustration that the Government has failed to deliver on its pledges to cut NHS waiting lists and stop the illegal passage of boats across the Channel.

The Tories will hope that Labour makes mistakes that eat into their polling advantage, such as Sir Keir Starmer's handling of the party’s u-turn on their flagship £28 billion green pledge.

But beyond the top line of the polls, hidden in the data are the answers all party headquarters will be asking: who are the people we need to convince?

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Talking point

The latest polling data from an exclusive partnership between The Telegraph and Savanta, measuring public opinion ahead of the 2024 General Election.

Just 45 per cent of Tory voters agree that Mr Sunak should be Conservative leader for the election, with 37 per cent wanting someone else. The rest did not express a view.

The polling also signals danger for Downing Street over its immigration stance. Overall, 72 per cent of respondents think that the Government is handling the issue badly, compared to 20 per cent who think it is being dealt with well.

Just 34 per cent of Tory voters think the Rwanda deportation plan will succeed in reducing the number of migrants crossing the Channel.

That is a fall from January, when 42 per cent thought the policy would succeed.

age

Unsurprisingly, Labour lead amongst the under-50s, a group they had already convinced at the 2019 election. The Greens perform best amongst the under-25s than with any other demographic, coming second in most polls. 

More surprising is the conversion of the middle-aged demographic, of 50 to 64 year olds, to Labour. Until Liz Truss's premiership this group had tended to lean towards the Conservatives.

The Conservatives now only beat Labour amongst the elderly, a group they recently awarded with above inflation pension increases. But even this support is waning, with Reform on a trajectory to take one in five votes in the over-65 age group.

country

Polls suggest the SNP’s hold over Scotland has collapsed, in the wake of Nicola Sturgeon stepping down from the party and a finance probe which led to her husband’s arrest, and then her own. 

Labour is now neck-and-neck with the SNP in the polls in Scotland, with hopes the election will see a return to form in the country. 

In London, the Midlands, Wales and the North, Labour’s steady lead continues. In the North, the Tories major gains in 2019 have seemingly halved. 

Even more alarming for the Conservatives is their loss of support in their political heartlands in the south of England. Here, Labour took the lead in October 2022, and have frequently been fifteen points ahead.

The Liberal Democrats, who tend to benefit when the Tories suffer in the south, have not yet seen a major boost in the polls.

gender

In 2019, women were most likely to vote Labour and men most likely to vote Conservative. 

In the next elections, polls indicate no such split will exist, with both genders supporting Labour with similar vote shares. 

The main division is over Reform, which around one in eight men say they will support compared to just one in thirteen women. 

brexit vote

Brexit took centre-stage in the 2019 election, and the promise to “Get Brexit Done” saw Boris Johnson enter Downing Street. And although the UK officially left the EU in 2020, the legacy of Brexit is still felt in the polls. 

Leave voters have fled from the Conservatives, but have not necessarily flocked to Labour. 

In fact, polls suggest Leave voters are just as likely to support Reform as Sir Keir Starmer’s party. 

Meanwhile, Remain voters overwhelmingly support Labour, with the Liberal Democrats, Conservatives and Greens coming second with similar vote shares of around 9 to 13 per cent. 

2019 vote

Only Labour voters have remained broadly loyal to their 2019 vote with around 80 per cent of voters likely to support the party again. 

The Liberal Democrats have seen their 2019 vote split with Labour, perhaps a sign that their erstwhile supporters are being won over by Sir Keir Starmer’s reforms. 

As for the Conservative, just over half of voters say they’ll back the party again. In second place are Reform, who have thus far managed to steal more than one in five Conservative voters. 

Red/blue wall

The Red Wall has become a key battleground for the Conservatives - the forty or so seats that are historically Labour-supporting and predominantly Leave-backing, won by the Tories at the last election. 

However, if an election were held today, the Conservatives would be decimated, with less than a third of Red Wall constituencies planning to vote Tory. 

On their other front, the so-called Blue Wall which represents historically Tory, southern shire constituencies, also faces challenges. 

Polling suggests a three-horse race between the Conservatives, Labour and the Lib Dems, something which could benefit the Tories if votes are split between the two opposition parties.

Candidate odds The latest chance of winning for each candidate, according to the bookies
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