As Chinese invasion looms, only a mighty drone strike armada can save Taiwan

It’s clear, however, that the Taiwanese military will need a lot more drones than it apparently is planning for – and advanced tactics for deploying them.

The Ukrainian navy developed its USVs in the first year after Russia widened its war on Ukraine starting in February 2022. The first drones – or “Sea Babies,” as the Ukrainians have nicknamed them – were little more than commercial speedboats with GPS navigation, a satellite radio connection, day and night cameras and a nose full of explosives.

Steered via satellite by a human controller potentially hundreds of miles away, the USVs mostly hunt by night, and in packs. The Sea Baby raid targeting the Russian patrol boat Sergei Kotov – off Feodosiya in occupied Crimea on March 5 – seems to be typical of the robotic assaults. 

Under the cover of darkness, perhaps half a dozen drones swarmed Sergei Kotov at her anchorage. The Russian crew spotted some of the Sea Babies speeding in from astern of their vessel, and opened fire.

But according to one analysis of a video depicting the attack, a second pack of drones USVs took advantage of the Russian gunners’ distraction and attacked from the unprotected opposite side.

These flanking drones didn’t actually strike Sergei Kotov, it seems. Rather, they herded the Russian vessel into open water just outside Feodosiya. There, another pack of Sea Babies lay in wait. It’s that group of drones that apparently hit and sank the Russian vessel.

Clearly impressed by the Ukrainian USVs’ effectiveness, Taiwanese officials signaled to Taipei Times earlier this month that they would acquire 200 drone boats for the Taiwanese army as well as an unspecified number of the drones for the navy. The Chungshan Institute of Science and Technology will begin mass production of the USVs in 2026, the newspaper reported.

That swarms of USVs can defeat manned warships isn’t in doubt. But scale is a factor. The Ukrainian navy has built potentially hundreds of USVs and deployed them to sink, so far, just three of the Black Sea Fleet’s dozens of large warships.

The Chinese navy could muster hundreds of big ships for an invasion of Taiwan. While other Taiwanese and allied forces – submarines, fighter squadrons and ground-based missiles – could contribute to a defensive campaign, it’s still apparent that hundreds of USVs isn’t nearly enough USVs to make much a difference in a naval campaign that could be an order of magnitude bigger and more violent than the current battle for the Black Sea.

Especially considering the problem of time. Kyiv’s fleet is patient, apparently spending weeks plotting courses and planning maneuvers before deploying a swarm of Sea Babies to attack a single Russian vessel.

A Chinese invasion of Taiwan, by contrast, could play out in just a single day as Beijing’s massed fleet steams across the 100-mile-wide Taiwan Strait and lands potentially tens of thousands of troops on Taiwanese beaches. Taiwanese USVs might get just one shot at the attacking Chinese. 

It shouldn’t be too difficult for Taipei, with its extensive high-tech industry, to scale up its prospective robotic fleet. The California think-tank RAND estimated Taiwan could buy 1,000 USVs for a little over one percent of the $20 billion the country spends annually for defense. 

And then there are the Americans. In the era of Donald Trump and his isolationist – or, worse, pro-authoritarian – movement, no country can just assume the United States will fight on its behalf. Consider that a handful of Trump-aligned Republican lawmakers have, for six months now, blocked US aid to Ukraine. 

But if American voters continue to keep Trump out of power and manage to blunt the power of his legislative acolytes, the United States might still honor its pledge to defend Taiwan from China. In that case, the US Navy could lend its own planned drone fleet – potentially thousands strong – to the war effort.

The Taiwanese and Americans would need to coordinate their USVs. After all, the synchronization of multiple groups of drone boats has been instrumental in the Ukrainians’ recent success with their Sea Babies. 

It’s for that reason that experimentation is critical. The US Navy is already testing out drone-swarm tactics. It should invite the Taiwanese military to join the trials. Even if Trump becomes president again and withholds American support during some future Chinese attack on Taiwan, the experience the Taiwanese gain now could help them deploy their own USVs to the greatest effect in the future.