The Tories could end Sadiq Khan’s misrule, but they’re not even trying

The fatalistic gloom that has descended over the Conservatives this past year was pierced last July by one bright light. They held on to Uxbridge and South Ruislip in a by-election result that bucked every other electoral trend. This was a seat the Labour Party was expected to win easily. It was vacated by Boris Johnson following his resignation to avoid parliamentary proceedings being taken against him for allegedly misleading the Commons over the pandemic parties in No 10.

Mr Johnson faced a term of suspension that could have led to a recall by-election, which he decided not to contest, presumably fearing defeat. In the event, the seat was recaptured for the Tories with 45 per cent of the vote, down on their general election showing but a victory nonetheless, an unexpected resistance against the seemingly inexorable tide flowing against them.

Why did they keep this constituency when a backlash was expected against Mr Johnson and a Conservative government 20 points adrift in the polls? In two other by-elections on the same day, the Tories lost Somerton and Frome to the Lib Dems while Labour took the North Yorkshire seat of Selby and Ainsty, both with huge swings.

But Uxbridge stayed blue for one simple reason: Sadiq Khan. In particular, the London mayor’s decision to extend the ultra-low emission zone (Ulez) across the capital infuriated voters in the outer boroughs. I was one of them, forced to trade in my diesel car for an Ulez-compliant model or face a £12.50 daily charge every time I got behind the wheel.

Thousands of tradesmen and women who rely on their vans to make a living but cannot afford a new one are now thought to be just adding the charge to their bills. In the first month, Ulez penalties in the newly-affected boroughs raked in £24 million, which presumably helped sustain the staggering cost of salaries for London’s bureaucracy. 

Figures revealed this week show that City Hall employs 1,100 people on a salary of £100,000 or above. More than 700 work for Transport for London, hardly a byword for efficiency. The number earning six figure salaries in the Mayor’s Office for Policing and Crime has risen from 80 to 301 over the past five years as the streets have become more dangerous. The mayor received £171,587 in 2022-23, up £21,000 compared with four years earlier, and more than the Prime Minister.

London is a microcosm for the rest of the country. If you want to see how Sir Keir Starmer will run Britain, look to the capital. And if you want to see how he can be beaten, look to Uxbridge. If Mr Khan could be toppled, it could halt Labour’s seemingly unstoppable drive for power.

The Tories are approaching the May 2 local elections with trepidation, expecting to be trounced, as well they might be. This will trigger yet another bout of fratricidal warfare, with further pointless speculation over the future of Rishi Sunak as if dumping the leader once again will help matters. 

But a win in London just might. It may be emblematic but such things can change the political weather. A classic example was in May 1990 when the Tory party – 15 points behind in the polls – lost hundreds of seats in the local elections held in the wake of the “poll tax”. 

The narrative of the night was artfully spun by Conservative Party chairman Kenneth Baker, who seized on Tory wins in Westminster and Wandsworth to hail a major triumph and diverted attention away from the party’s national woes. It didn’t save Mrs Thatcher from being ousted later that year, however.

So the big question is: why are the Tories not throwing the kitchen sink at London in a bid to wrest it from Labour? Their apparent torpor is symptomatic of a wider malaise – a lack of ambition, vision and old-fashioned political nous.

Mr Khan may be well ahead in the polls but, unlike Labour nationally, he has been in power and his record can be tested and found wanting. Furthermore, we only have to go back to 2017 to see how a seemingly unassailable lead can evaporate in a campaign. Theresa May entered the general election some 20 per cent ahead of Labour but was almost caught – by Jeremy Corbyn, of all people – and lost her overall majority.

Some analysts fear the same could happen to Mr Khan. An assessment in the Left-leaning New Statesman magazine this week reported that the mayor and his team privately fear the election will be much closer than predicted. Incumbents are always plagued by doubts, but when they are trying for a third term, as Mr Khan is, the uncertainty grows. 

It is more problematic this year because the voting system has changed. Instead of using the supplementary vote, whereby anti-Conservative Lib Dems and Greens can switch to Mr Khan after backing their own candidate, the election will be held on a first-past-the-post basis. At the last mayoral election, the Tory candidate Shaun Bailey came within 5 per cent of Mr Khan in the first ballot despite being virtually disowned by his party. 

Compulsory ID at the polling station is also troubling the Labour camp, as they fear young and ethnic minority voters expected to back Mr Khan will be excluded, costing them 5 per cent support. Apathy and complacency are also seen as a threat internally, but not, bizarrely, the one policy we know will harm the Khan campaign – Ulez. Sir Keir praised Ulez at the launch of the mayor’s campaign this week, seemingly unaware of its unpopularity. 

Evidently, the Khan camp is far from confident and, if even the Labour Party thinks its man is beatable, the Tories should be pushing their candidate Susan Hall for all they are worth. But the truth is that they need someone better known and yet no senior Conservatives were prepared to put their names up. 

Surely four, or even eight years as mayor of London would be preferable to leading a rump Tory party in Opposition and, as Boris found, can be a platform to greater things. Moreover, a win in London might even give the party a boost nationally.

So who has a high profile, a financial “war chest”, is constantly being talked about and could bring down Mr Khan? Step forward Penny Mordaunt. Nominations close next Wednesday, so she needs to get a move on.