Electric cars will decide the outcome of the American election

Rarely has a policy brought such negative economic and ultimately political implications. EVs today are simply not practical for most people, unable to afford the higher costs and wary of a charger infrastructure that is far from ready for prime time. 

The average price for a brand-new EV is over $60,000, about $12,000 more than the average four-door sedan. Even with tax credits, it is hard to see how consumers come out ahead, at least for now. The electric version of the base version of the Ford F-150 pickup truck, the best-selling vehicle in America, costs an additional $26,000 over the gasoline-powered variety. EVs are not affordable for most Americans: it’s little wonder that only 16 per cent of them are seriously considering a purchase. 

It’s not that consumers are opposed to all electric-aided cars. Customers are willing to line up for gas-saving hybrids, which are cheaper to produce and infinitely more practical for most people at this time. But the EVs promoted by the Biden administration are simply unaffordable. As even the Washington Post admitted, electric vehicles are turning the automobile back into a luxury – “out of reach for many”. 

Yet Biden and his green backers seem impervious to any reality that doesn’t fit their ideology. In addition, there’s big money to be made by cashing in on government mandates, much as state monopolies have done over the centuries. These mandates have helped make Elon Musk among the world’s richest people, and left Tesla valued far above a more profitable competitor like Toyota.

The current EV market cannot sustain the unionised, Detroit-centered auto industry that depends overwhelmingly on trucks, SUVs and traditional gas cars. A move to produce electric cars would be a job-shredder: the production of electric cars requires 30 per cent less domestic labour in the US.  

The political consequences of a shift towards EVs will be decisive come November, particularly when considering key swing states like Michigan (by far the largest center for the industry, accounting for some 165,000 of the country’s auto industry jobs) and Wisconsin. Losses in either of these states would likely doom Biden’s re-election.

Unsurprisingly, Trump has jumped onto this issue, issuing quasi-hysterical claims of a coming “bloodbath in the industry.” Regardless of your thoughts on the man, Trump is the ultimate political opportunist and clearly senses a large blue collar pushback. 

The bloodbath that Trump warns of is more likely to be a slow, ebbing wound, particularly in the upper Midwest. Even if enforced, new EV facilities being built for batteries and EVs are located primarily in the southeast. It’s difficult to understand why any sensible manufacturer would stick around in union-dominated locales when they could be greeted with subsidies, deregulation, and low costs elsewhere.

While Trump might gain an electoral boost from Biden’s mandates, the winner in a forced EV transition scenario would clearly be China. Even as China exploits reliable fossil fuels – the country is on a coal plant building spree and emits more GHG than all developed countries put together – it is cynically using them to boost production of “green” cars, while Western nations struggle with the high costs associated with wind and solar.

If the EV mandates remain, China will supplant the West’s auto industry. China already produces twice as many EVs than the US and the EU combined. Its leading EV maker BYD is now the world’s largest, and the country controls the requisite rare earth minerals required to manufacture them at scale.  

If this scenario plays out the pain will be felt well beyond Michigan. The overall American automobile sector, including sales, maintenance and after-market services, employs over four million people. That’s 1.7 per cent of the labour force potentially at risk of job loss, a fatal final blow to America’s already damaged industrial sector. 

Biden and his handlers should be deeply concerned. It’s time to consider listening to consumers – who also happen to be voters – who want low emissions cars but are avoiding EVs. Forcing them to buy a product they don’t want is not only bad business, but bad politics. If Biden ends up losing the Midwestern swing states, he will have no one to blame but himself and his progressive handlers.