Jeremy Hunt hints at general election date

Thank you for joining me for today’s politics live blog. 

I will be back tomorrow morning. 

Nigel Farage’s much-anticipated interview with Donald Trump, the former US president, is due to be broadcast on GB News at 7pm this evening. 

The former leader of the Brexit Party conducted the interview at Mr Trump’s Mar-a-Lago resort in Florida. 

Penny Mordaunt will not become leader of the Conservative Party with a coronation, Sir Jacob Rees-Mogg has said.

Rishi Sunak has faced speculation about a possible Tory revolt against his leadership, with plotters lining up the Leader of the Commons as a potential replacement.

But Sir Jacob, a former leader of the Commons, told Times Radio: “It doesn’t really matter whether she does or not. Penny Mordaunt is not going to become the leader of the Conservative Party with a coronation. That idea is inconceivable.”

You can read the full story here. 

Jeremy Hunt has hinted the general election could be held in October. 

The Chancellor told the Economic Affairs Committee this afternoon: “No governments decide a spending review this far ahead of when that spending review is happening. 

“This particular spending review has to be complete before next April when the next financial year starts. 

“And of course if the general election is in October that will mean it is very, very tight and that is why we are thinking in advance about the most important element of that spending review which is the productivity element…”    

Rishi Sunak last week ruled out holding a general election on May 2 and has said previously his “working assumption” is the contest would be held in the second half of this year. 

Leaders from across Europe will meet at Blenheim Palace in July as the UK hosts the latest meeting of the European Political Community.

Downing Street announced this afternoon that the leaders will meet for talks at the birthplace of Sir Winston Churchill on Thursday July 18. 

Approximately 50 leaders will attend the summit in Oxfordshire to discuss prominent issues like the war in Ukraine and illegal migration. It will be the EPC’s fourth meeting since its first in October 2022. 

Rishi Sunak said: “I am delighted that the UK will host the next European Political Community meeting at the historic Blenheim Palace. It is an important forum for cooperation across the whole of Europe on the issues that are affecting us all, threatening our security and prosperity.

“From putting our full support behind Ukraine to stopping the scourge of people smuggling and illegal migration, under the UK’s leadership the meeting will bring together our European friends, partners, and neighbours to address our shared challenges.”

A UAE-backed takeover of the Telegraph would potentially be against the public interest, the media regulator Ofcom has warned the Culture Secretary.

Lucy Frazer told MPs that she was “minded to” refer the deal for an in-depth investigation by the Competition and Markets Authority (CMA) over its potential threat to press freedom.

You can read the full story here. 

The final decision on restoring the Palace of Westminster should be put off until after the general election, the committee overseeing the project has said.

MPs will now not be presented with options for repairing the crumbling 19th century palace until 2025, to allow more time for the cost of a rolling maintenance programme to be explored.

In a report published today, the Restoration and Renewal Client Board - a committee composed mainly of MPs and peers - said the further delay to a decision will “enable us to arrive at a detailed, robust and fully-costed plan for the works which commands the confidence of both Houses, and the public, as swiftly as possible”.

Britain faces a 1979 moment, Rachel Reeves will argue this evening as she vows that a Labour government would work with businesses to create a decade of “national renewal”.

Delivering the annual Mais Lecture in the City of London, Labour’s shadow chancellor will liken the economic challenge awaiting the next government to that faced by Margaret Thatcher.

You can read the full story here.

Lord Howard urged Tory MPs to “rally round” Rishi Sunak as he argued that the Conservative Party can still win the next general election. 

The former Tory leader said poll leads for parties have “evaporated” in the past and the same could happen again. 

He told Times Radio: “My message to all Conservative colleagues is to support the Prime Minister, who I think is doing a remarkable job in very difficult circumstances, and to rally round because we can win the next election. 

“Opinion poll leads have disappeared before. Theresa May started the 2019 election with a 20 point lead in the opinion polls, and it evaporated in three weeks of her campaign. 

“So we’ve seen opinion polls change, and these can change. The Prime Minister deserves our support and we can turn things around and win this election.”

Rwanda flights taking off would demonstrate that Rishi Sunak is “anything but weak”, a former leader of the Conservative Party has said. 

Lord Howard told Times Radio: “The Labour Party, in one of their many futile attempts to discredit him, used to describe him as weak.

“But it’s absolutely clear that if he gets people on the plane to Rwanda, he’s anything but weak. 

“It has taken the most determined and ambitious pressure from him to do something in the face of incredible opposition in order to do something which is likely to deal with the problem of people crossing the Channel on dangerous boat trips. 

“Nobody else has the faintest idea of how to deal with that problem.”

The Liberal Democrats have fallen to their lowest level of poll support since the end of January 2023, according to a new Redfield & Wilton Strategies survey. 

The poll, conducted on March 17, put the Lib Dems on eight per cent of the vote. 

That was down by four points when compared to the company’s previous poll conducted on March 10. 

Meanwhile, Reform UK was unchanged on 14 per cent, the highest vote share recorded for the party by Redfield.

Labour’s poll lead over the Conservatives has increased by eight points in a week, according to a new Redfield & Wilton Strategies survey. 

The poll, conducted on March 17, put Labour on 47 per cent of the vote and the Tories on 21 per cent, giving the former an overall lead of 26 points.  

Support for Labour was up by five points but down by three points for the Tories when compared to the company’s previous poll conducted on March 10. 

Redfield said the 21 per cent figure for the Tories equalled their lowest ever in its polling since Rishi Sunak became Prime Minister.  

It is the second poll in as many days to have shown a large spike in Labour’s lead over the past week. A Deltapoll survey published yesterday gave Labour a 23 point lead, up by six points on the previous week. 

The polling, undertaken at the end of a torrid week for Mr Sunak as he dealt with the fallout from the defection of Lee Anderson to Reform and the Tory donor racism row, will further fuel concerns about the Conservatives’ general election chances.

Downing Street has suggested the House of Lords will be showing a lack of “compassion” if peers do not pass the Rwanda Bill, writes Charles Hymas. 

The Prime Minister’s official spokesman urged the upper chamber to “work with the Government” ahead of crunch votes tomorrow when the Bill returns to the Lords after MPs rejected all 10 of their original amendments.

Peers are working today to reformulate their amendments in order to resubmit them for votes tomorrow as part of the so-called “ping-pong” with the Commons. 

If they are passed, it will force a second round of “ping pong” delaying the Bill’s passage until next week or even after Easter. Rishi Sunak has said he wants the first deportation flights off to Rwanda this spring.

The Prime Minister’s official spokesman said: “Not acting, in the Government’s view, is not an option and it certainly wouldn’t be a compassionate route.

“We want to end the business of people smuggling and ensure that vulnerable people are not lured into making the perilous journey across the Channel, so there’s an opportunity for the Lords to work with the Government this week and pass this Bill.”

Leadership speculation continues to rumble on in Westminster this week as Tory MPs ponder the Conservative Party’s general election fate. 

Some Tory MPs are of the view that the party would have a better chance at the election if Rishi Sunak was replaced with someone else but many more believe that the Conservatives need to “keep calm and carry on”. 

What do you think? You can have your say in our reader poll: 

Any Tory MP who fancies taking over from Rishi Sunak before the general election would need to be aware that they could “end up being an extremely short prime minister”, a polling expert said this morning. 

Prof Sir John Curtice said a new Tory leader before the election would face a “very, very difficult task”. 

He told Times Radio: “Do you really think that if, let’s say for the purposes of argument, Penny Mordaunt were to take over in June, that she would be able to so dramatically change the way in which the government is run, the image of it in the eyes of the public, the way in which it’s sold to the public, that there would be a dramatic turnaround in the opinion polls?

“It would be a very, very difficult task. Nothing is impossible in politics. But certainly anybody who fancies going for the job, if Mr Sunak is brought down, would certainly need to be aware that they could end up being an extremely short prime minister indeed.”

There are “reasonable grounds” to be “doubtful” that the Conservative Party’s popularity will increase if and when Rwanda migrant deportation flights finally take off, a leading polling expert said. 

Prof Sir John Curtice said polling suggested that immigration was not a “central issue” for many voters who were more focused on the economy and the NHS. 

He told Times Radio this morning: “When you start looking to see why the Tories are where they are, the truth is that immigration doesn’t seem to be a central issue, and therefore, whether or not if those flights ever do take off to Rwanda this side of the election, whether that also is going to make any difference, well, shall we say there are reasonable grounds for being doubtful that that will prove to be the case. 

“It’s the economy and it’s the NHS that the Government has to try to focus on to improve and, more difficultly, to try and claim the credit for.”

The Rwanda Bill is nearing the end of its journey through Parliament, with the Government hoping to deliver on its aim of the first flights taking off this spring as it looks to deliver on Rishi Sunak’s pledge to stop small boat Channel crossings. 

Lord Falconer, the Labour former justice secretary, has urged peers to “rally all our troops” to try to defeat Rishi Sunak’s Rwanda Bill.

He said he believed that the upper chamber would reinstate amendments to the Bill when it returns to the upper house on Wednesday after MPs voted to remove them last night. 

Asked if opposition peers wanted to delay the Bill for as long as possible, he told Times Radio: “It depends, how much does the Lords think there is a real principle at stake here? I don’t know what will happen tomorrow because I just don’t know how many Conservative peers the Government will be able to get in. 

“I think we have got to rally all our troops tomorrow to try to defeat it. I suspect we may well defeat many of these ‘ponged’ back amendments from the Commons tomorrow, then how long will it go on for? 

“I think you’ll find the Bill will then come back a week later and it is anybody’s guess what will happen there. The longer it goes on, the stronger governments tend to get.” 

Sir Jacob Rees-Mogg said the political landscape seemed to “be against” Rishi Sunak at the moment but “things have changed before”. 

The former Cabinet minister told Times Radio: “I think Rishi Sunak is an honest, decent and intelligent man who is doing the job effectively.

“Times at the moment seem to be against him but… things have changed before. In the 2017 election, Theresa May went into it with a phenomenal lead, way ahead of Jeremy Corbyn, and that changed during the course of the campaign. 

“And in 2019, the Tories had their worst election result ever in the European elections and then won an election, seven months later. 

“So to what extent can things change? To what extent is any improvement in the economy going to be beneficial? And to what extent will people look at Keir Starmer and say, ‘well, that’s not exactly who we want’?”

Sir Jacob Rees-Mogg has defended Rishi Sunak amid Conservative leadership infighting and said the Prime Minister cannot be held “personally responsible” for a fall in Tory popularity. 

He told Times Radio: “In defence of Rishi Sunak, it is quite hard for a leader to be, at this stage in his leadership, significantly more popular than the party because the two get quite closely identified.  

“And the Conservative Party’s popularity fell before Rishi Sunak’s did, so I wouldn’t hold him personally responsible.”

Simon Case will give evidence to the Covid Inquiry on May 23. 

The Cabinet Secretary stepped back from his role in October last year due to a medical matter, and did not appear at the inquiry’s hearings when other senior Westminster figures gave evidence. 

He returned to work in January this year. 

The rescheduled date for his appearance was announced by the inquiry this morning. 

WhatsApp messages disclosed at previous evidence hearings revealed Mr Case’s exasperation with the sometimes chaotic handling of the pandemic during Boris Johnson’s time as prime minister and his evidence session will be closely scrutinised.

Lucy Frazer insisted Rishi Sunak is “the right man” to lead the country amid speculation about a Tory plot to oust him before the general election.

The Culture Secretary sought to defend the Prime Minister’s record on the economy, saying he had done an “outstanding job”.

Asked whether Penny Mordaunt would be a good Tory leader, Ms Frazer told BBC Radio 5 Live: “We’ve got lots of excellent talent on our benches but the Prime Minister, who I worked with when he was chancellor and obviously I’m in Cabinet with now, I think does an outstanding job.

“He is full of integrity. He has a plan which will deliver, which is already delivering, and has huge knowledge about the economy…

“So I think he’s absolutely the right man to lead the country and he has shown he can deliver across the board, but importantly on that key issue which is the economy.”

Sir Robert Buckland said trying to oust Rishi Sunak in a general election year would be an “act of folly” as he told Tory rebels to “keep calm and carry on”. 

Reports last night claimed that as many as 40 letters of no confidence in Mr Sunak’s leadership have now been submitted to Sir Graham Brady, the chairman of the 1922 Committee of Conservative MPs. 

Mr Sunak would face a vote on his leadership if that number hits 52 - equivalent to 15 per cent of the parliamentary party. 

Sir Robert, a former Cabinet minister, told Sky News: “Only Sir Graham Brady, the chairman of the 22, has the numbers. I think that the time for sending letters has long passed, if it ever arose, frankly. 

“We have had leadership elections. I don’t think the public is interested in the Conservative Party navel gazing.”

Asked for his message to Tory MPs who want to oust Mr Sunak, Sir Robert said: “I would say that to try and do that in an election year would be an act of folly. Let’s keep calm and carry on.” 

Migrant deportation flights to Rwanda “could very much happen” this spring, a former justice secretary said. 

Spring is the Government’s aim but the slow passage of the Rwanda Bill through Parliament and the expectation of further legal challenges has prompted questions over whether that will actually happen.

Asked when he believed the planes could take off, Sir Robert Buckland, a former Cabinet minister, told Sky News: “I think they can go later this year. The civil service define the spring as late as June 20 so that gives him a bit of leeway. I think it could very much happen. 

“I think if the Bill is now settled this week then it becomes law before Easter, there is no reason then why the Government can’t get on with making those arrangements.”

Sir Robert Buckland has told the House of Lords not to “push the matter too aggressively” as it seeks to make further changes to the Rwanda Bill tomorrow. 

MPs last night voted to strip out all 10 of the amendments passed by the Lords to the Bill but it will now return to the upper chamber for further scrutiny, with peers expected to try to amend it again. 

Sir Robert, a Tory former justice secretary, defied the Government and voted last night to keep some of the amendments but he suggested that the Lords now needed to back down. 

He told Sky News: “Last night I took a view that I thought some of the Lords amendments were right, I supported them, in defiance of my own Government, never an easy thing to do. 

“I think now that we have got through this first stage, I think the Lords would probably be best advised not to push the matter too aggressively because this is an elected Government, it needs to get on with its plan. 

“I have always supported the principle of using and working with other countries to support the challenge of illegal migration. We have just got to get the detail right. That’s what I was doing last night.” 

Rishi Sunak today announced plans to introduce a new Independent Football Regulator to tackle “unscrupulous owners”. 

The Government has finally brought forward its long-awaited Football Governance Bill. 

You can read the full story on what is in the Bill here.

Sir Jacob Rees Mogg said “changing our leader in the way people seem to change their socks cannot be wise” as he issued a warning to any Tory MPs plotting to oust Rishi Sunak. 

The former Cabinet minister said that the Tories were now “getting ahead with some Conservative policies” as he urged all of his colleagues to back Rishi Sunak. 

He told GB News: “But we also have to show to voters that we are a serious party of government and changing our leader in the way people seem to change their socks cannot be wise, it cannot be sensible, it cannot imbue the nation with that level of confidence that it needs to have.

“And so, although I’ve been a critic of Rishi Sunak over the years, I haven’t always lauded him with praise, I think now is the time for the party to be loyal: To back its leader to recognise an election is close at hand. 

“We need to concentrate on that and the manifesto for the British people that we will deliver in the next few months, rather than the vanity, the vainglory, the self-obsession of some politicians who think it’s about them.

“It’s not. It’s about the country and it’s about the King’s government being carried on, as the Duke of Wellington always used to say.”

Sir Jacob Rees-Mogg has warned Tory rebels that ousting Rishi Sunak would be “madness” as he argued “changing our leader in the way people seem to change their socks cannot be wise”. 

The former business secretary said any Tory MPs plotting to replace Mr Sunak needed to “calm down and support the Prime Minister”. 

He made the comments amid ongoing speculation about a potential challenge to Mr Sunak’s leadership as the Conservative Party continues to struggle in the polls. 

Referring to leadership speculation, Sir Jacob told GB News: “I think this is crazy stuff. It’s madness. The Conservative Party has already changed leader too many times since the last election.

“The mandate that we have for a prime minister gets thinner and thinner every time we change it. And we need, as Conservatives, to calm down and support the Prime Minister.”