Tory Party manifesto 2024: Rishi Sunak's expected policies for the general election

Rishi Sunak faces a steep uphill battle to win voters back to the Tories and prevent his party from suffering a wipe-out at the hands of Labour in the general election.

With the Conservatives trailing by 20 points in the polls, backbenchers are urging him to set out a radical blueprint to cut taxes and immigration.

But he must weigh up those demands against the continued funding and staffing of the NHS and other public services that rely on foreign workers.

Here is a look at what the Prime Minister could include in his 2024 election manifesto.

• NHS and social care
• Tax and spending
• Economy
• Environment
• Energy and ‘Net Zero’
• Education and childcare
• Defence
• Pensions and welfare
• Policing and crime
• Migration

NHS and social care

Within weeks of taking office, Mr Sunak set out five pledges by which voters should judge his premiership, one of which was to slash NHS waiting lists.

It is highly likely he will head into the next election on a promise to reduce those times further, particularly as his efforts so far have been hampered by strikes.

He is also poised to continue the Tory policy, first brought in by David Cameron, of protecting the health service from any public funding cuts.

Mr Sunak has repeatedly talked up how as both chancellor and now Prime Minister, he has signed off on big cheques to pour billions more into the NHS budget.

The manifesto is set to include a major hiring spree, with Mr Sunak having promised to recruit 300,000 doctors and 170,000 nurses by 2036-37.

On social care, the Tories will have to decide whether to recommit to introducing an £86,000 cap on the amount people will have to pay for care across their lifetimes.

The limit was originally to come into force this October but its implementation has now been pushed back by Jeremy Hunt, the Chancellor, until after the election.

Boris Johnson had planned to pay for the policy by hiking National Insurance, but the tax rise was scrapped by Liz Truss, and Mr Sunak chose not to resurrect it.

Tax and spending

The Prime Minister and the Chancellor have repeatedly expressed their desire to reduce taxes on working families as soon as public finances allow.

Mr Johnson went into the 2019 election promising a “low-tax economy” but ended up overseeing the biggest tax-raising parliament on record.

The Tories had pledged in their last manifesto not to raise income tax, VAT or National Insurance, an offer that propelled the party to a landslide victory.

The Prime Minister is poised to hold two tax-cutting budgets – in March and the autumn – where he could announce measures to take place after the election.

They could then be included in the manifesto to draw a clear dividing line with Labour, with the Conservatives planning to accuse their rivals of having a secret agenda to hike taxes.

Tory MPs are urging Mr Sunak to focus on easing the burden on working families with options including 2p off income tax and another 2 percentage point National Insurance cut.

A more striking pledge, and one that Sir Keir Starmer would likely refuse to match, would be to announce plans to slash or even abolish inheritance tax.

Elsewhere, the Prime Minister could also cut taxes for companies, with Conservative backbenchers urging him to reform business rates.

Economy

Three of the five missions outlined by Mr Sunak centred on the economy – reducing inflation, boosting growth and bringing down the national debt.

Those promises have become central to his premiership, and are highly likely to feature heavily in the Conservative manifesto.

Four years ago the Tories promised to ensure debt was lower at the end of this parliament and to keep national interest payments below 6 per cent of GDP.

They vowed to achieve this by not borrowing to fund day-to-day spending and keeping net public sector investment at below 3 per cent of national wealth.

Mr Sunak is under pressure from a group of Tory backbenchers who have pledged not to vote for any budget which increases the overall tax burden.

As a result, he is set to be heavily reliant on spending constraints to balance the books. Cuts to welfare and foreign aid would be Right-wing crowd-pleasers.

After a scarring two-year battle with inflation, the Prime Minister could also pitch any belt-tightening as a way of helping to keep prices low.

On growth, he may come under pressure to match Labour’s commitment that it will make sure Britain becomes the fastest-growing economy in the G7.

Environment

The Conservatives have been targeted heavily in rural seats by both Labour and the Liberal Democrats over their record on tackling river pollution.

Sir Keir has looked to set the agenda with a series of eye-catching announcements, such as denying bonuses for failing water company bosses.

It is likely that as a result, Mr Sunak will look to make tough pledges of his own on cleaning up Britain’s waterways in an attempt to win back country voters.

The Prime Minister could revive plans, announced in the 2022 Autumn Statement, to raise the maximum fine for polluting water firms from £250,000 to £250 million.

At the same time, Michael Gove is pressing for a commitment to scrap EU-era rules that are blocking 100,000 new homes. The Housing Secretary wants to include a pledge to get rid of nutrient neutrality laws after his attempts to axe them last year were thwarted by Labour.

Steve Barclay, the Environment Secretary, meanwhile, wants to bolster the public’s access to nature including national parks. He could look at introducing a right to roam, which would allow people to walk on privately owned mountains, moors, heaths and downs.

Energy and ‘Net Zero’

Mr Sunak set out plans for a “more pragmatic, proportionate, and realistic approach” to net zero targets during a major speech in September 2023.

But he has since suffered a number of rebellions at the hands of Tory MPs who say he has not gone far enough to reduce the costs for working families.

It is highly unlikely the Prime Minister will abandon the overall target to make Britain carbon neutral by 2050, but he could offer more easements. Rural backbenchers are unhappy about the proliferation of solar panels, and Mr Sunak has previously talked about restricting their use on farmland.

Mr Sunak may also look to pursue more pro-motorist policies after a backlash against Sadiq Khan’s Ulez lost Labour the Uxbridge by-election.

He may promise tough measures to stop the roll out of low emission zones, low traffic neighbourhoods and 20mph limits across the country.

On energy, he could placate many of his backbenchers by setting out more ambitious plans to expand Britain’s supply of nuclear power.

The Prime Minister has also ended the ban on new onshore wind farms, but could go further in the manifesto by removing more hurdles to their construction.

Education and childcare

Mr Sunak made education reform the centrepiece of his Tory conference speech last year, promising to scrap A-levels and replace them with new exams.

In his final address to the party faithful before the general election, he unveiled a long-term plan to create a “knowledge-rich” Advanced British Standard.

The new qualification, which would bring together academic A-levels and technical T-levels, is likely to feature prominently in the manifesto.

It will provide the central plank of the Prime Minister’s commitment to ensure that all students study some form of English and maths up to the age of 18.

Under the plan, sixth-formers will spend almost 200 hours more in the classroom, with Mr Sunak acknowledging it will require a teacher recruitment drive.

He has described education as a “silver bullet” and is likely to go into the election promising to put more resources into schools and teaching.

Mr Sunak has also made expanding free childcare one of his big offers to voters, with a commitment to increase availability set to be in his manifesto.

He has outlined plans to double the number of hours parents can claim for children aged nine months and older to 30 hours per week.

Defence

Defence spending is likely to feature in the election debate more prominently than it has in decades given the multiple threats facing Britain.

Grant Shapps, the Defence Secretary, has said all Western nations will have to expand their militaries to stay safe in a more dangerous world.

Mr Sunak has set out a pledge to increase funding for the Armed Forces to 2.5 per cent of GDP in the long term, which may feature in the manifesto.

Concerns have also been raised about the size of the Army, Navy and Air Force and their struggle to attract enough new recruits.

The Prime Minister could look to address that either by setting himself a target to grow personnel numbers or by increasing salaries.

There is likely to be a commitment in the manifesto to continue standing by Ukraine and providing the country with the arms it needs to fight Russia.

Pensions and welfare

One policy almost nailed on for inclusion in the Tory manifesto is the retention of the triple lock, which is key to shoring up the party’s pensioner-heavy vote.

The mechanism, which sees the state pension go up by whichever is higher of inflation, average earnings or 2.5 per cent, was introduced by George Osborne in 2010.

When asked last September, Mr Sunak refused to confirm that the policy will be retained, but it is highly unlikely that he will drop it ahead of the election. Polls show that over-70s are now the only age group in which the Tories lead, while Labour is poised to commit to the triple lock in its own manifesto.

The Prime Minister is also likely to promise to keep other pensioner perks such as winter fuel payments, free TV licences and bus passes.

But he is set to take a completely different approach when it comes to benefits, with a crackdown on Britain’s ballooning welfare bill on the cards.

There has been speculation that Mr Sunak will revive the “Get Britain Working” campaign which propelled Mr Cameron to election victory in 2015.

Possible measures could include a further tightening of the benefits cap and hardening up sanctions for those able to seek work but choose not to.

Policing and crime

The election campaign is likely to see Mr Sunak and Sir Keir battle it out for who can sound the toughest when it comes to cracking down on crime.

Labour has banged the drum on lower-level offences like burglary and antisocial behaviour, painting a picture of a lawless Britain where neighbourhoods live in fear.

The Prime Minister will come under pressure to match that rhetoric with harsher sentences for petty criminals and more community payback schemes.

But he may have an ace up his own sleeve by unveiling a crackdown on knife crime, which would allow the Tories to target Mr Khan’s record in London.

Mr Johnson went into the 2019 election promising to recruit 20,000 more police officers and, given low charging rates, a similar pledge could feature this time too.

Ministers have also previously outlined plans to create 20,000 extra prison places, which could be revived and included in the manifesto.

Migration

Mr Sunak will be under huge pressure from his own MPs to go into the next election on a cast-iron promise to dramatically cut net migration.

He is highly unlikely to commit to a cap on numbers given concerns over how that would impact businesses and the economy.

It would be unrealistic for him to revert to the party’s previous pledge to reduce net migration to the tens of thousands, given it ran at over 700,000 last year.

Mr Sunak has promised to tighten rules on dependants, which he says will bring that number down by 300,000, and he could flesh that out in the manifesto.

On stopping the small boats, it is highly likely that he will include a commitment to build on the Rwanda plan to draw a clear dividing line with Labour.

Some Tory MPs want him to go further by pledging a referendum on leaving the European Convention on Human Rights, but that is thought unlikely to happen.