Tories now just four points ahead of Reform UK

The Conservative Party is now only four points ahead of Reform UK, according to a new poll, after sinking to a level of support last seen during the final days of Liz Truss’s premiership.

A YouGov survey conducted on March 19 and 20 put the Tories on 19 per cent of the vote and Reform on 15 per cent.

The Conservatives were down by one point and Reform up by one compared with the company’s previous poll, conducted on March 12 and 13.

Labour was unchanged on 44 per cent in a further indication that Sir Keir Starmer’s party is on track to win a comfortable majority at this year’s election.

YouGov said the Conservatives’ share had fallen to the same level as “at their lowest ebb” just before Ms Truss quit at the end of October 2022.

In further bad news for Rishi Sunak, less than half (46 per cent) of those who backed the Tories at the 2019 election – when they secured an 80-seat majority – intend to stick with them.

Reform noted that the 15 per cent figure was a record high to date with any pollster. Earlier this month, the party gained its first MP with the defection of Lee Anderson, who represents Ashfield and is a former deputy chairman of the Conservatives.

Ben Habib, Reform’s co-deputy leader, said: “The political wind is rightly in our sails. The Reform party is on the march.”

Hours after the poll, Reform confirmed that Dan Barker, who was the Conservative candidate for Mayor of Greater Manchester, had defected and would now stand for Richard Tice’s insurgent Right-wing party.

The Telegraph’s poll tracker shows that the Conservatives have struggled to shift the dial since Mr Sunak succeeded Ms Truss as Prime Minister, and Labour has had a consistent lead of around 20 percentage points for the past few months.

The findings came as Mr Sunak faced ongoing speculation of a potential leadership challenge amid Tory concerns about the party’s election chances.

Speculation has run rife in the past week that figures plotting against the Prime Minister wish to oust him before the next election and install Penny Mordaunt, the Leader of the Commons.

Earlier this year, there were similar rumours surrounding Kemi Badenoch, the Business Secretary, although she has insisted those involved in moves against Mr Sunak “are not my friends”.

Asked this week for her message to Tory rebels, Ms Badenoch told LBC Radio: “I have said many times that people need to stop messing around and get behind the Prime Minister.”

Mr Sunak received a rapturous reception at a meeting of the 1922 committee of Tory backbenchers on Wednesday night, when he reportedly told colleagues that he was “angry” at the impact of rumoured plots against him on the party’s fortunes.